Kent Politics Podcast

EP16: Local elections, Electoral Calculus polling expert Martin Baxter; and Dover MP Natalie Elphicke defects …


Episode 16: 

In this episode of the Kent Politics Podcast, we unpack the recent local elections and their implications for the political landscape. The discussion begins with an overview of how conservative voters have dispersed across various parties, highlighting a significant shift away from traditional patterns.

Key Points Discussed:

Local Elections Analysis: Liberal Democrats secure control in Tunbridge Wells, whilst Maidstone remains without overall control. A detailed examination of these results reveals substantial gains for Lib Dems and losses for Conservatives.

Defection Drama: Dover MP Natalie Elphicke’s unexpected move to Labour is dissected, pondering its impact on both her former and new party.

Planning Controversies: Coverage includes updates on Chatham Docks redevelopment plans facing a legal challenge that has led to deferral by planning officers.

Guest Interview: Our segment focuses on potential outcomes suggested by Martin Baxter from Electoral Calculus. With predictions based on MRP polling indicating possible scenarios where Labour could dominate upcoming general elections, including seats traditionally held by Conservatives.

Insights Delivered:

Voter Discontent: An exploration into why nearly half of 2019’s Conservative voters are now looking elsewhere or choosing not to vote at all.

Coalition Dynamics: How coalition politics within councils like Tunbridge Wells are evolving post-elections.

Political Strategy: Discussion around what strategies might be effective for Tories to regain support amidst current public sentiment against them.

Impactful Defections: Assessing whether high-profile party switches truly affect voter allegiance or if they’re seen as opportunistic moves by politicians.

Election Predictions Science: Insight into how electoral calculus uses data science and polling methods to predict election outcomes with remarkable accuracy.

Thanks for listening to the Kent Politics Podcast – don’t forget to check out stories throughout the week on the politics pages of KentOnline, and you can watch the Kent Politics Show with Rob Bailey on KMTV every Friday at 5pm or on demand at

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